Trump Must ‘Bring the Hammer Down’ on China Over Iran Weapons Supply, Expert Warns

Gordon Chang’s blunt warning to the White House comes as intelligence reports suggest Beijing is covertly arming Tehran.

The warning comes at a moment of heightened tension in the Middle East and renewed scrutiny of China’s role in the conflict. U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly assessed that Beijing supplied Tehran with goods with potential military uses, and there are concerns that Chinese-made weapons may have already been used against American forces.

A Direct Challenge to U.S. Security

Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and a longtime China analyst, has been blunt in his assessment: China is not a neutral observer in the Iran conflict but an active enabler. He has previously argued that Iran has “effectively been China’s proxy” and that Beijing’s support extends beyond oil purchases to include clandestine military assistance.

“At the beginning of this year, people were saying, ‘they’re the next superpower,’” Chang said, referring to China. But he believes Trump has already begun cutting Beijing “down to size” through strategic moves in Venezuela and Iran. Now, Chang argues, the administration must go further.

Chang has specifically called for sanctions on Chinese banks used to finance “bad actors” such as Iran. He has also warned that U.S. allies in Asia — including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan — could face severe economic strain if Middle Eastern oil supplies are disrupted.

Trump’s ‘Staggering’ Tariff Threat

The president has already signaled he is prepared to take dramatic action. In April, Trump threatened China with a 50% tariff if it provides military assistance to Iran.

“If we catch them doing that, they get a 50% tariff,” Trump told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures.” He called it “a staggering amount”.

The threat was tied to specific intelligence concerns. U.S. intelligence agencies believe China may have shipped portable air defense systems — known as MANPADS — to Iran. These shoulder-fired missiles can target low-flying aircraft and pose a direct threat to U.S. forces in the region. CNN reported that U.S. intelligence indicated China was preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within weeks.

Despite the tough rhetoric, Trump has expressed skepticism that China would risk its relationship with the United States. “I have a very good relationship with President Xi,” Trump said. “I don’t think they would do that anymore — but maybe they did a little bit at the beginning”.

Beijing’s Denials and the Intelligence Gap

Chinese officials have consistently denied the allegations, calling reports that it supplied weapons to Iran “baseless smears”. Beijing insists it has not provided weapons to any party in the conflict and is working to de-escalate tensions.

However, U.S. officials remain wary. Intelligence assessments cited by The New York Times and CNN indicate China has continued supplying Iran with dual-use technology and components that can support military production — even as it publicly positions itself as neutral.

Analysts note that Beijing relies heavily on Iranian oil and may seek to balance its economic interests with its desire to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S.. China is arguably the country with the greatest leverage over Iran, and Beijing has demonstrated its wartime support for Tehran in two main ways: continuing to purchase Iranian oil and providing a variety of clandestine assistance to the regime’s military efforts.

A Broader Strategy Needed

Chang’s call for Trump to “bring the hammer down” reflects a growing consensus among national security experts that economic pressure alone may not be sufficient. While a 50% tariff would be economically devastating for Chinese exporters, critics argue that Beijing could continue its support for Iran through covert channels that are difficult to detect and sanction.

The broader objective for the United States, Chang has suggested, is to disrupt China’s ability to project power and support U.S. adversaries. That means targeting not just weapons shipments but also the financial networks that enable them.

Trump has described recent negotiations with Tehran as productive but ultimately unsuccessful because of Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear ambitions. “They want to have nuclear weapons. They’re not going to have nuclear weapons,” Trump said.

The Stakes for American Families

While the geopolitical stakes are enormous, the issue also hits close to home for American families. The conflict in the Middle East has already disrupted global oil markets, and further escalation involving China could have significant consequences for energy prices and the broader economy.

Chang has noted that the United States is positioned to withstand ongoing tensions with Iran, but key allies in Asia could face economic strain. For American consumers, that means potential ripple effects at the gas pump and beyond.

What Comes Next

As the Trump administration weighs its next move, the pressure from experts like Chang is likely to intensify. The president’s upcoming engagements with Chinese leadership — including a high-stakes summit in Beijing — will be closely watched for signs of progress or continued confrontation.

Chang has framed the issue in stark terms: China’s support for Iran is not just a foreign policy problem but a direct challenge to U.S. national security. Whether Trump will follow through on his tariff threat or pursue additional sanctions remains to be seen, but one thing is clear — the administration is running out of patience with Beijing’s dual game of public neutrality and private military support.